Mapping the Decline: Elucidate the Diversity of Threatened Brazilian Amphibians

Integrating genomics and ecological models to map amphibian declines

Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates worldwide, and Brazil concentrates a high number of declining and poorly understood species. This project integrates historical data, ecological modelling, and museomics to identify the drivers of decline and reveal hidden diversity. Using niche models under current and future climate scenarios, we assess the vulnerability of threatened and declining species, focusing on climate change, habitat loss, and disease. Through high-throughput sequencing of type specimens and topotypes from major collections, we resolve taxonomic uncertainties that currently limit conservation planning. The combined approach generates robust species delimitations, refines distribution estimates, and identifies priority regions for action. Results strengthen biodiversity assessments and support conservation strategies for Brazil's amphibian fauna.

LIB contribution: modelling expertise and analytical integration

The LIB contributes essential expertise in ecological modelling, climate-impact assessments, and biodiversity analysis. The project benefits from advanced workflows for variable selection, ensemble modelling, and projections of climate and land-use change across temporal scales. The ZFMK team supports the refinement of modelling pipelines, evaluation of environmental predictors, and interpretation of biogeographical patterns, ensuring methodological accuracy and reproducibility. The museum's strong background in amphibian ecology and its computational infrastructure enable high-quality simulations of current and future habitat suitability. Additionally, the LIB provides an international research environment that promotes scientific exchange, synthesis of results, and the development of manuscripts. This support is crucial for integrating genomic, ecological, and climatic perspectives to better understand amphibian declines and guide conservation strategies.

LIB: ecological modelling and climate-impact expertise

The project aims to clarify the drivers of amphibian declines in Brazil and improve the taxonomic and ecological foundations needed for conservation. Objectives include:

• Identify past, current, and future threats to species across climatic, environmental, and epidemiological gradients.

• Resolve taxonomic uncertainties through sequencing of historical and type specimens.

• Generate improved distribution models and future vulnerability scenarios.

• Integrate genomic and ecological results to highlight priority species and regions for conservation actions.

• Establish long-term collaborations and provide open-access datasets to support future research.